SNN Predicts: 2018 NHL Conference Finals

Wales		Campbell
Doogie	Result	Doogie	Result
4-3	4-1	4-3	4-2
4-3	4-2	4-3	4-3
W-L	8-4	PS	3

Whoops.

Well, we got three wrong winners from three tight matchups, one conference final that makes total sense, and one that makes none. Let's see what we have to work with.

Wales Conference Finals

(1) Tampa Bay Lightning vs. (3) Washington Capitals

Playoff History: One recent, one historical, same outcome.

2003 CQF	2011 CSF
4-2	4-0

Season Series: Team Records: 2-1-0 (TBL), 1-1-1 (WSH); Goals: 9-8 (TBL); Possession: 53.6% (TBL)

Doogie Says: Despite my prediction above, if you'd told me two weeks ago, or even last year, that Tampa and Washington would be in the Eastern Final, I'd be like, sure, that sounds like a thing that would happen. Tampa's on its third trip to the final four in the last four years, and were runaway President's Trophy favourites for half the year, before the winter doldrums dropped them all the way to...um, third. As for Washington, it's kind of ironic that this team made the final four after winning an almost-certain-NHL-record 60 playoff games since their last conference final season, when they've won three President's Trophies in the Ovechkin era, but gotten bounced early each time, while this version of the Caps is much less deep and powerful, but just good enough to overcome the two-time champion Penguins.

You'd think that after all that, I might have second thoughts about doubting the Caps two series in a row, but it's not like my objections have really gone away, and Tampa is back to living up to the lofty expectations they'd earned in 2015 and 2016, as well as earlier this season. Boston nearly caught them for the division crown back in March and April, but after a 6-2 drubbing in the opening game, Tampa just decided they weren't gonna lose again, and then didn't. They're still the most talented team in the East, and added a bona fide top-pairing defenceman at the deadline for a plickspect and change. Washington kinda did nothing after getting way worse in the offseason, and while it's great that Braden Holtby is Braden Holtby again, Andrei Vasilevsky has been more than up to the task at his end of the ice. Give it to the Bolts in six.

	2	2	4	4	3	0	0	3
	4	6	2	2	2	3	4	4

Campbell Conference Finals

(2) Winnipeg Jets vs. (3) Vegas Golden Knights

Playoff History: I'm not even sure why I include this section for Vegas series, besides uniformity.

Season Series: Team Records: 1-1-1 (WIN), 2-1-0 (VGK); Goals: 12-11 (VGK); Possession: 51.8% (VGK)

Doogie Says: On the other hand, if you'd told me last year that Winnipeg would be hosting Vegas for the chance to represent the West, I'd tell you to pull the other one. Recent-vintage Jets teams have been fun but flawed, lacking in depth, discipline, and most importantly, goaltending. The ghost of the Atlanta Thashers was manifested as an albatross in the form of Ondrej Pavelec, with a supporting cast of kids and backups so aggressively mediocre that you could almost justify their decision not to turn elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Vegas Golden Knights, as we've covered in this space previously, are a fucking expansion team.

And yet, both teams have defied expectations consistenty and fairly reliably over the course of the year. Winnipeg saw tremendous growth from their youth, be it the stars (Laine), the depth (Lowry), or the goaltending (Hellebuyck). They brought in a retired NHL referee to help them get a handle on the dos and don'ts of the modern NHL. That got them to the point where, come deadline time, they could snap up a genuine top-six centre from a division rival, completing their team. They just beat the best team in the NHL three times in their own barn, losing a fourth in double OT, and outscoring high-octane, defensively-sound Nashville 19-9 in the process! Meanwhile, Vegas is demonstrating how, with a fairer set of rules, expansion teams can take advantage of market inefficiencies (i.e., stupid GMs) and teams blessed with depth, without the baggage of pre-existing loyalties and contracts, to create a good team from day one. And then they went and actually did so, building a blazingly fast, uptempo team that transitions at the drop of a hat, and they're fun as hell to watch. They absolutely got lucky in spots - no one had William Karlsson scoring 43 goals, including William Karlsson - but the Knights do provide a template going forward for the potential future Seattle team, or even other rebuilding teams in a more limited sense. It would be really cool if Vegas represented the future of the NHL.

As for the present, I have to admit, it sort of pained me to pick against Winnipeg last round, after how thoroughly they deconstructed the Wild, while Nashville showed some flaws against Colorado. Freed of the admittedly arbitrary obligation to stand by my picks, I think now feels like the right time to bid good night to the Vegas firebandwagon. I'm not sure I agree with this take that no one can stop the Winnipeg Jets now - I need to see more Tampa Bay in action - but they sure feel like the prohibitive favourites in this series. Let's say Jets in six, cruelly ending Vegas's dream on their own ice and giving their fans their first taste of bitter, revenge-inspiring disappointment. Welcome to the NHL, guys. <3

	4	1	2	2	1	1
	2	3	4	3	2	4