Oh, hey, didn't see you there. This year, I've managed to actually watch even less hockey than last year, which makes this whole exercise look increasingly futile. Heck, I was so swamped earlier in the week that I kind of couldn't be bothered to finish and post this before the first games. For what it's worth, the early games really didn't influence things at all: there's been a lot more paper mismatches here than I can remember in previous years. There's often at least a couple of upsets compared to what's on paper, but there was nothing I really felt strongly about this time around.
Adams Division Semifinals
(1) Tampa Bay Lightning vs. (WC) New Jersey Devils
Playoff History: A couple of old matchups from the last decade, both won by Jersey. Nothing exciting, honestly.
| 2003 CSF | 2007 CQF |
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| 4-1 | 4-2 |
Previously On...Survivor: After back-to-back final-four appearances, the Bolts fell out of the playoffs entirely last year due to injury. The Devils, meanwhile, lost the Stanley Cup Final in 2012, and lost so hard that they haven't been back to the playoff since. I knew that major penalty was a killer, but geez, guys.
Season Series: Team Records: 0-2-1 (TBL), 3-0-0 (NJD); Goals: 10-8 (NJD); Possession: 54.8% (TBL)
Gratuitous YouTube Embed: The NHL has been inconsistent over the years with putting its footage on YouTube, so I was surprised to see that they'd actually posted highlights of the deciding game between these two in 2007 the day after.
Doogie Says: I'm actually happy for Taylor Hall to finally make the playoffs, after getting cast aside for a spare part once the new shiny had come along in Edmonton. The Oilers' present foibles will likely lead to a Hart nomination, if not outright victory, for him. But man, the Devils are really bad once you take him out of the equation. And we all remember that Tampa was the runaway favourite for like 2/3 of the season, right? They did come back to Earth a bit late, and needed Boston to lose on the last day to secure the division title, but this is still essentially the same team that won five playoff series in two years not that long ago. Vasilevsky is a legit #1, Victor Hedman's getting Norris buzz, and Nikita Kucherov cracked 100 points this year. The Bolts are a top-five puck possession team and the Devils are clumped in the bottom ten with a couple of other teams that we'll talk about here in a moment. Besides Hall, the only thing the Devils really have going for them is decent shot prevention on the PK, and we all know how long special-teams advantages last in the playoffs. It's an honour just to be here, Jersey. Lightning in five.
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(2) Boston Bruins vs. (3) Toronto Maple Leafs
Playoff History: Do I need to say it?
| 1933 SF | 1935 SF | 1936 QF | 1938 SF | 1939 SCF | 1941 SF | 1948 SF |
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| 3-2 | 3-1 | 8-6* | 3-0 | 4-1 | 4-3 | 4-1 |
| 1949 SF | 1951 SF | 1959 SF | 1969 QF | 1972 QF | 1974 QF | 2013 CQF |
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| 4-1 | 4-1 | 4-3 | 4-0 | 4-1 | 4-0 | 4-3 |
* - Denotes two-game, total-goals series.
Previously On...Survivor: The Bruins lost to the Cinderella-esque Senators in the first round last year, while the Leafs put up a valiant effort against the Caps before dropping their first-round match-up in six.
Season Series: Team Records: 1-2-1 (BOS), 3-1-0 (TOR); Goals: 12-10 (TOR); Possession: 51.5% (BOS)
Gratuitous YouTube Embed: I'm kind of sad I already used the obvious one last year, so let's revisit another great Leafs-Bruins moment: Rask for Raycroft! Warning: video apparently shot on a potato.
Doogie Says: Man, poor Toronto. If they were the crossover team again this year, I'd take them over anyone in the Patrick other than maybe the Penguins. Instead, they get Boston in the matchup we all had pencilled in back in December but then almost didn't happen because Tampa had a bit of a whoopsie and Boston's also pretty darned good. Toronto's fun and talented, but they are also very clearly the third-best team in this division. Bruins in six.
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1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Patrick Division Semifinals
(1) Washington Capitals vs. (WC) Columbus Blue Jackets
Playoff History: None, as the Jackets continue to explore the first sustained run of competence in franchise history.
Previously On...Survivor: The Caps, you will be shocked to learn, lost to the Penguins in the second round last year. I know, right? You will similarly be shocked to learn that the Jackets lost to the Pens in the previous round.
Season Series: Team Records: 3-1-0 (WSH), 1-3-0 (CBJ); Goals: 12-12; Possession: 55.9% (CBJ)
Gratuitous YouTube Embed: Did you know that Alex Ovechkin's first NHL goal came against the Jackets nearly 13 years ago? Here's another grainy-ass SD video that your grandpa uploaded to YouTube way back when. I can see now why people used to complain about not being able to follow the puck.
Doogie Says: The Golden Knights are everyone's sexy pick for #1 seed most likely to get punted early, but yo have you seen Washington's underlying numbers? 24th in possession, 26th in expected goals (which I'm pretty sure are a proxy for shot quality), 4th in PDO, and oh yeah, a minor goaltending controversy. Columbus aren't world-beaters or anything, but I dunno that they have to be to take out a highly vulnerable Caps team that, lest we forget, took a massive step back during last off-season. Especially since the Jackets owned puck control during the season series, despite three one-goal losses. Get ready for another year of idiotic takes about Ovechkin, even as he leads the playoffs in scoring after round one. Blue Jackets in seven.
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(2) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (3) Philadelphia Flyers
Playoff History: A rivalry with a lot more recent content than historical, with three series in the last ten years. That 2012 series was apparently an effort to make up for lost time from back in the '80s.
| 1989 DF | 1997 CQF | 2000 CSF | 2008 CF | 2009 CQF | 2012 CQF |
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| 4-3 | 4-1 | 4-2 | 4-1 | 4-2 | 4-2 |
Previously On...Survivor: The Penguins became the first repeat champions in almost 20 years last year, while the Flyers had more pressing matters to attend to, I guess. Their most recent playoff appearance, two years ago, saw them lose to the Caps in the first round.
Season Series: Team Records: 4-0-0 (PIT), 0-2-2 (PHI); Goals: 20-11 (PIT); Possession: 52.8% (PIT)
Gratuitous YouTube Embed: Such a rich tapestry to pull from in the aforementioned 2012 series. It would be easy to go with the multiple line brawls, but instead, let's go with this ludicrous display of "defence" in the first playoff game to see a team hit double-digit goals since 1990.
Doogie Says: It's sort of crazy that we're all talking about the possibility of the first three-peat since the early '80s, in the bloody salary cap era, like it's a thing that could actually happen, but hey, here we are. With all due respect to Philadelphia, they're a speed bump here: they lost 10 in a row at one point, and needed a 100-point season by Claude Giroux just to get into the playoffs. Matt Murray has had an off year, but Brian Elliott and Petr Mrazek is no one's idea of a powerhouse goaltendng duo, not when you're facing the likes of Malkin and "Bat Boy" Crosby. Any real estate the Flyers owned in the Pens' heads back in the day has been seized by the Eminent Domain that is back-to-back Stanley Cups. Penguins in six, and that almost feels generous.
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Smythe Division Semifinals
(1) Vegas Golden Knights vs. (WC) Los Angeles Kings
Playoff History: Come on now, what do you think?
Previously On...Survivor: Last season, during the playoffs, the Vegas Golden Knights were...still not really a thing. Specifically, they were Reid Duke, Vadim Shipachyov, and a whole lot of anxiety for the other 30 NHL GMs. And now they're division champions. What the fuck, y'all. The Kings, on the other hand, last made the playoffs in 2016, losing in five to the Sharks. Fun fact: since they last won the Cup in 2014, the Kings have only won that single playoff game, and have only played that single playoff series. Whoops.
Season Series: Team Records: 2-1-1; Goals: 11-10 (LAK); Possession: 57.4% (VGK)
Gratuitous YouTube Embed: The scene in the arena as the Knights become the first post-1967 expansion team to make the playoffs, as part of the greatest expansion season in the history in North American pro sport.
Doogie Says: Look, I don't even care about the numbers on this one. The Kings are old and busted, Vegas are the new hotness. Let's ride this train 'til it flies off the damned tracks. Golden Knights in seven.
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(2) Anaheim Ducks vs. (3) San Jose Sharks
Playoff History: Despite being cross-state rivals for quite a while, the Ducks and Sharks have only met the one time, which was...*does math* *furrows brow* *does math again*...nine years ago now?! That can't be right, can it?
| 2009 CQF |
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| 4-2 |
Previously On...Survivor: The Ducks swept the Flames, overcame their Game 7 curse to beat the Oilers in round two, then lost to the Preds in the conference finals. The Sharks, by process of elimination, were, er, eliminated by the Oilers in the first round.
Season Series: Team Records: 1-1-2 (ANA), 3-0-1 (SJS); Goals: 11-7 (SJS); Possession: 52.3% (SJS)
Gratuitous YouTube Embed: Let's take a trip down memory lane! Joe Thornton tries to spark his Sharks in Game 6 of that 2009 series. It, um, didn't work.
Doogie Says: I...I know nothing about either of these teams. I actually had San Jose in 2nd until I checked the standings at the end of the season. Whoops. Anyway, fuck Anaheim. Sharks in six seven because I guess Thornton is hurt right now? Sure, okay.
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Norris Division Semifinals
(1) Nashville Predators vs. (WC) Colorado Avalanche
Playoff History: Nada.
Previously On...Survivor: The Preds came from the wild-card slot all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, giving the Pens a run for their money before falling in six games. The Avs were arguably the worst team of the salary cap era last year, the culmination of a run of mediocrity that saw them make the playoffs just once in seven years, losing to San Jose in the first round in 2014.
Season Series: Team Records: 4-0-0 (NSH), 0-3-1 (COL); Goals: 17-8 (NSH); Possession: 52.2% (NSH)
Gratuitous YouTube Embed: After the absolute nightmare of 2016-17, the Avs beat the team they were chasing to clinch in Game 82 of this season, leading to this dogpile, which is as pure of a moment as you're ever gonna see in sports.
Doogie Says: The President's Trophy "curse" is statistically illiterate nonsense; there's very few teams I'd give more than a puncher's chance against the Preds at this point. Colorado's a great story but Nashville is a much, much better team. Seriously, what is the deal with all these damned mismatches this year? Predators in five.
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(2) Winnipeg Jets vs. (3) Minnesota Wild
Playoff History: None. This is only the Thrashjets' third playoff appearance in their almost-twenty-year history, and they've yet to win so much as a single game.
Previously On...Survivor: The Jets' last playoff series came three years ago, when they got swept by the Ducks despite leading for the vast majority of three of the four games. Yes, I'm still annoyed about that. As for the Minnesota Mild (lawl), they did their annual "oh yeah, I suppose they were in the playoffs, too, weren't they?" routine last year, losing to the Blues in the division semis in five. Okay, that's not entirely fair, Jake Allen stood on his head and single-handedly won that series, but Minnesota is just such an anonymous team, I can barely keep their existence in my mind now that I don't get to watch the Oilers lose 2-1 to them four to six times a season like the Wild On Jack Lemaire years.
Season Series: Team Records: 3-1-0 (WIN), 1-3-0 (MIN); Goals: 14-10 (WIN); Possession: 52.5% (MIN)
Gratuitous YouTube Embed: Two different franchises from the same cities, but here's Teemu Selanne's four-goal night against the North Stars during his legendary 1992-93 season.
Doogie Says: I've been living out East too long, because I had no idea just how danged good the Winnipeg Jets are this year! Up until this year, they were basically just "the Atlanta Thrashers, but cold" in my head, but they picked up Paul Stastny at the deadline and pushed Nashville for the President's Trophy for a good chunk of the season. The Minnesota Wild, meanwhile, are a team in the National Hockey League. It's yet another top-five vs. bottom-ten possession battle, and these guys are short their best defenceman. So...yeah. Should I drop the S-word? Nah, let's give Minny some credit; they'll take one at home. Jets in five.
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Stanley Cup Final Picks
Doogie says: Predators over Bruins in seven. #PKApproved
Also, I definitely forgot that Dion Phaneuf was still a thing until Vegas-LA Game 1. And then he took a dipshit penalty in Game 2. Fun stuff.
ReplyDeleteI was actually referring to an interference call he took in the first rather than the hooking call in 2OT, BTW. I mean, that wasn't a great penalty, either, but it was 3 AM and I was asleep when the hook came.
DeleteUm, thanks for coming out, Toronto?
ReplyDeleteThe Smythe Division is apparently where offence goes to die: eight goals in two games in SJS-ANA, and five goals through nearly ten periods in VGK-LAK. Meanwhile, everyone else is popping up 4-3 and 5-4 scores like it's going out of style.
ReplyDeleteAnd right on schedule, four-goal third period.
Delete(Wild prediction for Tuesday: Vegas wins 4-3. Check out that pattern.)
DeleteOf course we all had the expansion team sweeping their first-ever playoff series. Of course.
ReplyDeleteI need to bookmark this for every year when I remind people that the Presidents' Trophy curse is not a real thing, but the natural outcome of increasing parity. (If you broke it out by decade, the effect would be even more pronounced.)
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/986316989407756288
And we have our first second-round matchup. That was fast.
ReplyDeleteTwo straight shutouts, and a minute away from having had another one earlier in the series. If Marc-Andre Fleury wasn't a thing, Conner Hellebuyck would be the early Smythe candidate.
ReplyDeleteConnor*
DeleteWhy can't I edit my own comments, Blogspot?
Also, rack up two perfect series for me. Curse you, Colorado, for breaking my third the other night.
ReplyDeleteAlso also, no points for the not-so-bizarrely specific call of Minny winning one home game before getting wrecked (rekt?) by the Jets.
DeleteOf course the year we stop doing the pool is the year that I'm 6/6 with three perfect series and counting.
ReplyDeleteSo close. Well, there's always next year to try for 8/8.
ReplyDeleteAlso, despite having Boston as my Eastern finalist, it would be way more fun if Toronto won that series in the only (?!) Game 7 of the first round.
And that's a wrap. Condolences, Leafs friends.
ReplyDeleteRound two starts tomorrow. That's so soon, you guys. See you in the next thread then.