SNN Predicts: 2017 NHL Division Finals

Wales		Campbell
Doogie	Result	Doogie	Result
4-1	4-2	4-2	4-0
4-1	4-2	4-3	4-2
4-1	4-2	4-2	4-0
4-2	4-1	4-3	4-1
W-L	4-4	PS	0

That could've gone a lot better. Part of me feels silly having gotten the Atlantic Division in particular all wrong, but to be fair, the two worst possession teams in the playoffs did just beat the first- and third-best possession teams in the playoffs, and by the end, Boston's D corps wound end up consisting of Chara, Liles, and the Providence Bruins' top four. C'est la vie and all that. Let's see if the division finals fare any better for me.

Adams Division Finals

(2) Ottawa Senators vs. (WC) New York Rangers

Playoff History: Two rounds in a row with two-leg ties! Two rounds in a row with ties back to the Silver Seven! Christmas has come early!

Anyway, 2012 is just recent enough that it looks relevant, but actually just long enough ago (five years) that like 3/4 of the rosters had nothing to do with it. Sports is fun like that!

1930 QF	2012 CQF
6-3*	4-3

* - Denotes two-game, total-goals series.

Season Series: Team Records: 2-1-0 (OTT), 1-2-0 (NYR); Goals: 8-5 (OTT); Possession: 58.3% (OTT)

Gratuitous YouTube Embed: Let's go with an OT goal from the home team's stands. I think this guy drops his phone around the 1:00 mark.

Doogie Says: It's no shocker that these teams are here on the basis of goaltending and winning a lot of close games - between the two series, only one game out of twelve was decided by more than one non-EN goal, while fully half were decided after 60 minutes. At first blush, the Sens look like they've got the statistical advantage, having carried the seasons series, put up a better possession number in the playoffs, and being ahead of the Rangers by a nose during the regular season. However, in order, (1) small sample size, (2) less than 51% against a mostly-AHL defence corps is not impressive, and (3) 0.1% is irrelevant. The Sens have a lot of feel-good stories, including Nicholle Anderson and Clarke MacArthur, but they're still an incoherent mishmash of a team, while the Rangers appear to have genuinely stepped it up here in the playoffs. They nearly broke even with an excellent puck-possession team in Montreal, and more importantly, did a much better job of maintaining leads when they had them. In what's likely to be a very low-scoring series, that will make the difference. Rangers in six.

	2	6	1	1	5	4	4
	1	5	4	4	4	2	2

Patrick Division Finals

(1) Washington Capitals vs. (2) Pittsburgh Penguins

Playoff History: I'm looking at all these Pens logos in a row, broken up by a single, solitary Caps logo, and this kind of springs to mind.

1991 DF	1992 DSF	1994 CQF	1995 CQF	1996 CQF	2000 CQF	2001 CQF	2009 CSF	2016 DF
4-1	4-3	4-2	4-3	4-2	4-1	4-2	4-3	4-2

Season Series: Team Records: 2-0-2 (WSH), 2-2-0 (PIT); Goals: 21-13 (WSH); Possession: 51.9% (WSH)

Gratuitous YouTube Embed: Duelling hat tricks! Get ready to feel old: this was eight years ago now.

Doogie Says: It's tempting to look at the Caps' history of second-round disappointments - two of which are detailed in the table above - make some obvious jokes, and call it for the Pens. You could say this year "feels" different, but it's not even that: there's a bunch of reasons to think the Caps have it this time. I mean, for starters, Kris Letang is gone, which automatically makes Pittsburgh less intimidating. Marc-Andre Fleury was okay in the first round, but I suspect they'll miss Matt Murray against a team with more firepower than the Blue Jackets. Sure, the Pens did made quick work of that overrated Columbus squad, while Washington struggled at times against the young Leafs, but I think the Leafs are also a bit better than they get credit for as an 8-seed, and I say this as someone who wrote them off in advance of last round. The Caps also showed the kind of resilience they're traditionally claimed to lack, coming back from 2-1 down in the series, and down 1-0 late in Game 6. Plus, the Caps' regular-season possession was killer, while the Pens' was mediocre, and the season series seems to have been less close than it looks by record alone. Capitals in seven.

	2	2	3	2	4	5	0	3
	3	6	2	3	2	2	2	4

Smythe Division Finals

(1) Anaheim Ducks vs. (2) Edmonton Oilers

Playoff History: Mere months before the Oilers handed them the Stanley Cup, gift-wrapped in a 6'6" Hall of Fame defenceman, the Oilers kind of shitkicked the then-Mighty Ducks. Good times!

2006 CF
4-1

Season Series: Team Records: 2-1-2 (ANA), 3-2-0 (EDM); Goals: 14-12 (EDM); Possession: 54.1% (EDM)

Gratuitous YouTube Embed: I could put in the clip of the Oilers beating the Ducks, but the announcers saying that "Dwayne Roloson's season [had] just begun" is entirely too depressingly ironic. Instead, let's have fun with one of Anahem's goalies from that year! Take it away, Jean-Sebastien Giguere!

Doogie Says: I said to hell with objectivity last time, and I'm saying to hell with it this time. Which is not to say I'm going aginst what objective measures suggest; I'm just ignoring them. Even though a cursory glance looks positive for the Oilers. Whatever whatever Oilers in seven.

	3	1	6	4	4	1	2	4
	5	2	3	3	3	7	1	3

Norris Division Finals

(3) St. Louis Blues vs. (WC) Nashville Predators

Playoff History: The Preds add to their relatively short list of playoff foes, having never played the Blues previously.

Season Series: Team Records: 2-3-0 (STL), 3-2-0 (NSH); Goals: 15-11 (NSH); Possession: 51.2% (STL)

Gratuitous YouTube Embed: I...got nothing here. Given the lack of meaningful history between these two teams, let's just go with Russian-language highlights from a random regular-season game. Because Russian.

Doogie Says: It's boring to just point to possession, say, "the one what has the bigger number," and move on. But consider the fact that while Nashville and St. Louis both had incredible goaltending in round one, Nashville also creamed the Blackhawks to the tune of 54.7% possession, second only to St. Louis's first-round opponent, Minnesota, who posted a whopping 57.8% (score/zone/venue-adjusted, remember) in a losing cause. This is to say nothing of how they controlled quality scoring chances. No wonder Bruce Boudreau was pissed. This, of course, makes Fredericton's Own Jake Allen the runaway early contender for the Conn Smythe, but it also means that unless he continues to be late-90s Dominik Hasek reborn, the Blues are proooooobably screwed. Predators in five.

	3	3	1	1	2	1	2
	4	2	3	2	1	3	4